Qatar 2022: An Early Look at The Top Goal Scorer Market

In what has already been an excellent year for sports fans, 2022 saves the best until last, with November/December seeing the latest edition of the most-watched sporting event on the planet. We are of course speaking of the magnificent FIFA World Cup, which this year heads to the Gulf nation of Qatar. An event sure to hit the sporting headlines, fans of the global game are no doubt already counting down the days.

Aside from the sheer excitement, and wall-to-wall program of football games, part of the main appeal of the tournament is of course the betting action which surrounds it, with many fans flocking to take advantage of the best betting sign-up offers in advance of the big kick-off.

Selecting the winner of the tournament is of course the most popular betting option – with five-time winners Brazil heading that list – but not too far behind is the top goal scorer market. Who will find the back of the net on the most occasions on the biggest stage of all? An honor claimed by a number of all-time greats over the years, including Eusebio, Gerd Müller, and the Brazilian Ronaldo, here we attempt to zero in on the players most likely to join that illustrious list in 2022.

Side with the Nation’s Most Likely Progress

Sticking with sides most likely to make it through to the latter stages would seem like the common-sense approach; more games does after all equal more opportunities to score. And sure enough, a look through the recent results of the top goal-scorer winners does back this theory up. The table below shows the winner of the title in each of the past ten editions, together with their winning goal tally, and how far their nation progressed through the tournament.

Year Top Scorer Nation Total Goals Progress of Nation
1982 Paulo Rossi Italy 6 Winners
1986 Gary Lineker England 6 Quarter-Final
1990 Salvatore Schillaci Italy 6 Semi-Final
1994 Hristo Stoichkov Bulgaria 6 Semi-Final
  Oleg Salenko Russia 6 Group Stage
1998 Davor Šuker Croatia 6 Semi-Final
2002 Ronaldo Brazil 8 Winners
2006 Miroslav Klose Germany 5 Semi-Final
2010 Thomas Müller Germany 5 Semi-Final
2014 James Rodriguez Colombia 6 Quarter-Final
2018 Harry Kane England 6 Semi-Final

One thing to note here is that with losing Semi-Finalists taking part in the third and fourth-placed playoff, all teams who reach the semi-final stages effectively take part in the maximum number of games. Bearing that in mind, it is informative to note that in nine of the past ten editions the winner – or one of the joint winners in the case of 1994 – played for a team who played this maximum number of games.

The lesson to take from this is that whilst many lesser nations do boast prolific goal scorers if their nation is unlikely to make it through to the latter stages then even a glut of goals in the Group Stage is likely to be enough – only Oleg Salenko of Russia managing to pull this off when sharing the honor in 1994.

Nations to Focus On

Looking again at the above table, and focussing on the players to win the top goal scorer honor having reached the semi-finals or beyond, it is also interesting that the majority hailed from what could be termed a “big” footballing nation. Only Bulgaria in 1994, and Croatia in 1998 could really be labeled surprise semi-finalists.

The next step in tilting the odds in our favor then is to select the four nations we deem most likely to reach the semi-final stages of the competition. All fans will have their own opinions on this, but when taking the draw for the competition in combination with the latest FIFA World Rankings, our shortlist of four is as follows.

  • Argentina – Ranked number 5 in the World, Lionel Messi’s side should comfortably come through a Group C section containing Saudi Arabia, Mexico, and Poland and may then only need to see off a solid but limited Denmark and the inconsistent Netherlands to make the last four.
  • Brazil – As the world’s number one ranked side Brazil is impossible to dismiss, particularly having been so impressive in South American qualifying. Red hot favorites to win Group G, a potential route to the semis of Uruguay and then Spain is not straightforward, but they will be strongly fancied to win both of those games.
  • France – They may not have been quite at their scintillating best in qualifying, but France does arrive as the defending champions and possess a squad crammed with youthful brilliance, and players experienced with performing on the big stage. Provided they top their group, they look to be in the easiest quarter of the draw.
  • Belgium – Until very recently it was not Brazil but Belgium who topped the FIFA World rankings; a testament to a squad stacked with talented performers plying their trade at Europe’s biggest clubs. Semi-finalists in 2018, look to have strong claims of at least matching that performance this time around.

Drawing Up the Shortlist

Having decided upon our version of the most likely quarter-finalists, the final stage is to then sift through the squads of each of the four selected nations in the hunt for those men most likely to light up the goalscoring charts. Taking each of the sides in turn, here are our four men to follow at Qatar 2022.

Argentina: Lautaro Martínez

  • International Record – 20 goals in 38 games
  • General Top Scorer Odds – 33/1

Think Argentina and you of course think Lionel Messi. And rightly so. The most magical player of the modern era is after all his country’s all-time top scorer, talisman, and penalty taker. Priced at around the 14/1 mark, he will likely be a popular bet. Messi did however have to share top scorer honors in qualifying with Inter Milan hitman, Lautaro Martínez, and with the 24-year-old being more than double the price of his captain, he is well worth considering.

Brazil: Neymar

  • International Record – 74 goals in 119 games
  • General Top Scorer Odds – 12/1

PSG superstar Neymar remains his country’s main man at 30 years of age and remarkably is now only three goals away from tying with Pelé to become his nation’s all-time top scorer. The main free-kick and penalty taker, and top scorer during qualifying, he looks a solid bet to go close for the tournament favorites. But don’t rule out a big tournament from Richarlison who chipped in with six goals during qualifying and is a major part of the Brazilian threat. Available to back at around 50/1, he may be the selection of each way shrewdies.

France: Antoine Griezmann

  • International Record – 42 goals in 108 games
  • General Top Scorer Odds – 33/1

France is blessed with an embarrassment of riches in the forward positions, with PSG’s Kylian Mbappé and Karim Benzema of Real Madrid just two of the star names they can call upon. Eclipsing that duo in terms of international goals through – both all-time and during qualifying – is Atlético Madrid’s charismatic and creative, Antoine Griezmann. Consistently excellent for the national side and dangerous anywhere in and around the area, he’s around three times the price of his more “in focus” teammates and may just be a little overlooked.

Belgium: Romelu Lukaku

  • International Record – 68 goals in 102 games
  • General Top Scorer Odds – 16/1

Belgium’s number nine may be keen to prove a point on the back of a disappointing return to Chelsea, and if his side is to do well, he remains the man most likely to fire them into the latter stages of the competition. Already Belgium’s all-time top scorer, and the main goal-getter during qualifying, with the support of assist maker supreme, Kevin De Bruyne, he should be in for a productive tournament.

Our Best Bet: Martínez to Make his Mark

Any of the above four men seem likely to give bettors a good run for their money, but at the prices, we feel the best value lies with Lautaro Martínez. Looking a potential superstar for a number of years now, Martínez is just entering the prime years of his career and looks primed to make a big splash. Group stage fixtures against a potentially outclassed Saudi Arabia, inconsistent Mexico, and a Poland side who conceded to San Marino, Albania, and Andorra during qualifying could provide rich pickings for the Inter man.